What will my industry look like five or ten years from now? What products will customers buy in the future? How will Asian economies evolve with their growing middle class? In our complex and volatile world, such questions are not easy to answer. Traditional strategy tools such as Porter's Five Forces and Ansoff's Product-Market Matrix or theories of social class fail to provide convincing answers. Experience from the current crisis shows that we must take non-linear developments into account. And we need to be prepared for different possible futures.
This is exactly where scenario planning comes in. By developing and describing different visions of the future, the method enables a new level of strategy planning and management. Several companies successfully applied scenario planning: Shell anticipated the oil crisis in the 1970s, Volkswagen managed financial and market disruptions during the hyperinflation period in the 1990s in Brazil and Argentina, and IBM used scenarios to develop sustainable business unit strategies.
The HHL Center for Scenario Planning is a leader in the field of scenario management. A joint initiative by Leipzig Graduate School of Management (HHL) and Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, the Center aims to fully exploit the potential of scenario planning methods in practice. We refine the techniques involved and encourage public debate of the method.
We pursue three main areas of activity:
- Serving as the core of an international platform of experts, think tanks, academics and practitioners
- Supporting scenario projects for companies, governmental institutions and other organizations by developing, evaluating and monitoring scenarios
- Conducting academic research and education in scenario planning
Our knowledge base includes an extensive scenario library and a toolbox for long-term planning. Our team has comprehensive experience in using scenario planning for different projects and industries.
